The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026, slightly higher than the 4.2 per cent growth projected for 2025.
The projection is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook report titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.” The IMF said the improved outlook is based on better economic conditions in the country.
However, the Fund warned the Nigerian government not to abandon its current economic reforms. It cautioned that stopping or reversing these reforms could undo the progress already made, especially as political pressure increases ahead of future elections.
Speaking at the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook event organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Lagos, the IMF’s Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr Christian Ebeke, said Nigeria must stay the course on reforms. He noted that while some progress has been made, inflation remains high and continues to limit economic policy options.
According to the IMF, economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to improve, reaching 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
Globally, the IMF said economic growth will remain steady, even though growth in high-tech industries is expected to slow. The Fund projected global growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, slightly lower than the 3.3 per cent recorded in 2025.
On inflation, the IMF expects global prices to continue falling. Headline inflation is projected to drop to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, helped by weaker demand and lower energy prices.
The Fund noted that inflation trends differ across countries. Inflation in the United States is expected to return to its target level by 2027, while countries such as Australia and Norway may experience inflation above target for longer. Inflation in the UK is expected to ease by the end of 2026, while Japan, the euro area, China and India are also expected to see more stable inflation levels in the coming years.
To manage future challenges, the IMF advised central banks around the world to adjust their monetary policies carefully to keep inflation under control. It said countries with inflation close to target could gradually lower interest rates if economic activity weakens, while countries with high inflation should proceed more cautiously.
The IMF also stressed the importance of clear communication by central banks and warned that maintaining their independence is critical for economic stability and long-term growth.
